Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets

Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review the geophysical basis for the idea of a carbon budget, showing how this concept emerges from a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions. We then discuss the difference between a “CO2-only carbon budget” associated with a given level of CO2-induced warming and an “effective carbon budget” associated with a given level of warming caused by all human emissions. We present estimates for the CO2-only and effective carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C, based on both model simulations and updated observational data. Finally, we discuss the key contributors to uncertainty in carbon budget estimates and suggest some implications of this uncertainty for decision-making. Based on the analysis presented here, we argue that while the CO2-only carbon budget is a robust upper bound on allowable emissions for a given climate target, the size of the effective carbon budget is dependent on the how quickly we are able to mitigate non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. This suggests that climate mitigation efforts could benefit from being responsive to a changing effective carbon budget over time, as well as to potential new information that could narrow uncertainty associated with the climate response to CO2 emissions

New calculations and measurements of the Coulomb cross-section for the production of direct electron pairs by high energy nuclei

Recently, new calculations were made of the direct Coulomb pair cross section that rely less in arbitrary parameters. More accurate calculations of the cross section down to low pair energies were made. New measurements of the total direct electron pair yield, and the energy and angular distribution of the electron pairs in emulsion were made for O-16 at 60 and 200 GeV/amu at S-32 at 200 GeV/amu which give satisfactory agreement with the new calculations. These calculations and measurements are presented along with previous accelerator measurements made of this effect during the last 40 years. The microscope scanning criteria used to identify the direct electron pairs is described. Prospects for application of the pair method to cosmic ray energy measurements in the region 10 (exp 13) to 10 (exp 15) eV/amu are discussed

Phylogenetically related Argentinean and Australian Escherichia coli O157 isolates are distinguished by virulence clades and alternative shiga toxin 1 and 2 prophages

Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli O157 is the leading cause of hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) worldwide. The frequencies of stx genotypes and the incidences of O157-related illness and HUS vary significantly between Argentina and Australia. Locusspecific polymorphism analysis revealed that lineage I/II (LI/II) E. coli O157 isolates were most prevalent in Argentina (90%) and Australia (88%). Argentinean LI/II isolates were shown to belong to clades 4 (28%) and 8 (72%), while Australian LI/II isolates were identified as clades 6 (15%), 7 (83%), and 8 (2%). Clade 8 was significantly associated with Shiga toxin bacteriophage insertion (SBI) type stx2 (locus of insertion, argW) in Argentinean isolates (P<0.0001). In Argentinean LI/II strains, stx2 is carried by a prophage inserted at argW, whereas in Australian LI/II strains the argW locus is occupied by the novel stx1 prophage. In both Argentinean and Australian LI/II strains, stx2c is almost exclusively carried by a prophage inserted at sbcB. However, alternative q933- or q21-related alleles were identified in the Australian stx2c prophage. Argentinean LI/II isolates were also distinguished from Australian isolates by the presence of the putative virulence determinant ECSP_3286 and the predominance of motile O157:H7 strains. Characteristics common to both Argentinean and Australian LI/II O157 strains included the presence of putative virulence determinants (ECSP_3620, ECSP_0242, ECSP_2687, ECSP_2870, and ECSP_2872) and the predominance of the tir255T allele. These data support further understanding of O157 phylogeny and may foster greater insight into the differential virulence of O157 lineages. © 2012, American Society for Microbiology.Facultad de Ciencias Veterinaria

Predicting postoperative troponin in patients undergoing elective hip or knee arthroplasty: A comparison of five cardiac risk prediction tools

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty are at a risk for myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS). We evaluated the ability of five common cardiac risk scores, alone or combined with baseline high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), in predicting MINS and postoperative day 2 (POD2) hs-cTnI levels in patients undergoing elective total hip or knee arthroplasty. METHODS: This study is ancillary to the Genetics-InFormatics Trial (GIFT) of Warfarin Therapy to Prevent Deep Venous Thrombosis, which enrolled patients 65 years and older undergoing elective total hip or knee arthroplasty. The five cardiac risk scores evaluated were the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease calculator (ASCVD), the Framingham risk score (FRS), the American College of Surgeon\u27s National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) calculator, the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI), and the reconstructed RCRI (R-RCRI). RESULTS: None of the scores predicted MINS in women. Among men, the ASCVD ( CONCLUSION: In elderly patients undergoing elective hip or knee arthroplasty, several of the scores modestly predicted MINS in men and correlated with POD2 hs-cTnI

Analysis of the In Vivo Transcriptome of Bordetella pertussis during Infection of Mice

Bordetella pertussis causes the disease whooping cough through coordinated control of virulence factors by the Bordetella virulence gene system. Microarrays and, more recently, RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) have been used to describe in vitro gene expression profiles of B. pertussis and other pathogens. In previous studies, we have analyzed the in vitro gene expression profiles of B. pertussis, and we hypothesize that the infection transcriptome profile in vivo is significantly different from that under laboratory growth conditions. To study the infection transcriptome of B. pertussis, we developed a simple filtration technique for isolation of bacteria from infected lungs. The work flow involves filtering the bacteria out of the lung homogenate using a 5-μm-pore-size syringe filter. The captured bacteria are then lysed to isolate RNA for Illumina library preparation and RNA-seq analysis. Upon comparing the in vitro and in vivo gene expression profiles, we identified 351 and 255 genes as activated and repressed, respectively, during murine lung infection. As expected, numerous genes associated with virulent-phase growth were activated in the murine host, including pertussis toxin (PT), the PT secretion apparatus, and the type III secretion system. A significant number of genes encoding iron acquisition and heme uptake proteins were highly expressed during infection, supporting iron acquisition as critical for B. pertussis survival in vivo. Numerous metabolic genes were repressed during infection. Overall, these data shed light on the gene expression profile of B. pertussisduring infection, and this method will facilitate efforts to understand how this pathogen causes infection

The impact of salinity perturbations on the future uptake of heat by the Atlantic Ocean

Anthropogenic ocean heat uptake is a key factor in determining climate change and sea-level rise. There is considerable uncertainty in projections of freshwater forcing of the ocean, with the potential to influence ocean heat uptake. We investigatethis by adding either -0.1 Sv or +0.1 Sv freshwater to the Atlantic in global climate model simulations, simultaneously imposing an atmospheric CO2 increase. The resulting changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are roughly equal and opposite (±2Sv). The impact of the perturbation on ocean heat content is more complex, although it is relatively small (~5%) compared to the total anthropogenic heat uptake. Several competing processes either accelerate or retard warming at different depths. Whilst positive freshwater perturbations cause an overall heating of the Atlantic, negative perturbations produce insignificant net changes in heat content. The processes active in our model appear robust, although their net result is likely model- and experiment-dependent

Pattern of seat belt use by drivers in Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Trinidad and Tobago, the law on the mandatory use of seat belts was passed in 1995, but this law is hardly enforced. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency and predictors of seat belt use by motor vehicle drivers in the country.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>A cross-sectional study of 959 motor vehicle drivers using a self-administered questionnaire. Data analysis included Pearson Chi square test and multinomial logistic regression analysis in order to determine the possible predictors of seat belt use by the drivers in Trinidad and Tobago. A majority of the drivers sometimes (51.8%) or always (31.6%) use a seat belt. About 16.7%, 29% and 54.2% of the drivers perceived that the other drivers use their seat belts more frequently, with the same frequency and less frequently respectively compared to themselves. The main reason for not using seat belt by the drivers was given as frequent stops (40.7%) and the main motivation to use seat belt by the drivers was given as stiffer penalties for non-compliance with the seat belt law (44.5%). The predictors of seat belt use were male driver, no formal or lower level of education, driving for less than 10 years, and the perception that the other drivers use seat belts with the same or higher frequency compared to the respondents.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Only a small proportion of the drivers in Trinidad and Tobago always use a seat belt when driving. There is the need to enforce the seat belt legislation in the country.</p

A Call to Action: Taking the Untenable out of Women Professors’ Pregnancy, Postpartum, and Caregiving Demands

Despite becoming increasingly represented in academic departments, women scholars face a critical lack of support as they navigate demands pertaining to pregnancy, motherhood, and child caregiving. In addition, cultural norms surrounding how faculty and academic leaders discuss and talk about tenure, promotion, and career success have created pressure for women who wish to grow their family and care for their children, leading to questions about whether it is possible for these women to have a family and an academic career. The current paper is a call to action for academia to build structures that support women professors as they navigate the complexities of pregnancy, the postpartum period, and the caregiving demands of their children. We specifically call on those of us in I-O psychology, management, and related departments to lead the way. In making this call, we first present the realistic, moral, and financial cases for why this issue needs to be at the forefront of discussions surrounding success in the academy. We then discuss how in the U.S. and elsewhere, an absence of policies supporting women places two groups of academics—department heads (as the leaders of departments who have discretion outside of formal policies to make work better for women) and other faculty members (as potential allies both in the department and within our professional organizations)—in a critical position to enact support and change. We conclude with our boldest call—to make a cultural shift that shatters the assumption that having a family is not compatible with academic success. Combined, we seek to launch a discussion that leads directly to necessary and overdue changes in how women scholars are supported in academia